What do They Want?

Update Below

I am by no means as knowledgeable as I would like to be about the Middle East, Iran in particular. However, William Pfaff, author and political commentator on international relations, makes sense to me in his article "The Islamic Republic is Not in Danger, posted on Truthdig. Pfaff writes that

Iran’s cosmopolitan and liberal middle classes and its students are making a revolutionary bid without intending a revolution. The Islamic Republic is not in danger. At least not now.

Few think that the demonstrations in Tehran, and now in other Iranian cities, can produce a change in regime. The government’s police power, and that of the Revolutionary Guards, with the support of the farming and working-class population that believes it has a defender in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, makes that convincing.

What is being challenged is the reactionary social and political form the Iranian system has assumed under Ahmadinejad and the most conservative clerics. The Islamic state itself is not, or at least not yet, in real danger.

The mass rallies and marches in Iran have been compelling, even inspirational, but from what I've read and observed, it seems that those rallying and marching are not advocating overthrow of the government, with American-style freedom as an object. They seem, rather, to be speaking out against the government's repressing their votes. The leader they would want to rule their country would still be an advocate of the Islamic Republic of Iran. I don't think most of those protesters want separation of their religion and the state; they would prefer, however, a relaxation of religious restrictions and a more modern outlook.

Granted, I draw these conclusions from my reading and my small number of Iranian contacts, three or four people whom I know. One is a woman my age (or a little older) and the others are young women in their twenties. The older woman left Iran years ago, has lived in the United States for many years, and is an American citizen. She openly expresses her desire for a secular Iranian government. She returns to Iran, however, to visit family.

The younger women are more closely tied to Iran and less dismissive of the religious rule in Iran. They moved to the United States as children but have many contemporary friends and extended family members living in Iran. They are experts with Twitter, the Internet, and texting; they are in as constant contact with their Iranian friends and family as they can possibly be in this technological age. Over the past few months, I have listened to these younger women describe their visits to Iran, their anxiety over dressing correctly so as not to get arrested or to get their male companions arrested. (One of these young women has been arrested before.) One must pay attention to the neckline of one's outfit--the morality police might deem it too low and revealing. Tunics buttoned up the middle rather than slit on the sides are suspect because they may reveal the crotch of one's pants. Such restrictions on dress seem arbitrary at times. Women are often harassed or arrested for wearing bright colors; one year, pink seemed to be a particularly egregious color choice.

This week, an exchange between one of the younger women and the older woman illustrated to me the difference I see between these two generations. The two women were talking about the rallies in Iran. The older woman said that she didn't think the rallies would produce a real change in government, and, of course, she would like to see Islamic removed from the name of the government. She has little sympathy for religious leaders telling people what to do. The younger woman demurred. "That's not the point [of the protests]," she said. "We want our vote counted." She has followed the news from Iran as closely as possible, getting little sleep and frequently checking the internet and her cell phone throughout the day.

My impression was that the younger woman, who is representative of many of the young people like her in Iran, is not interested in an overthrow of the government. It's Ahmadinejad she doesn't like, as well as the overly restrictive religious requirements in public space. Young Iranians want a more modern Iran but not necessarily secular democracy.

As William Pfaff suggests, however, one might not really understand the true nature of one's desires or the consequences:

One wonders to what extent the young people on the streets of Tehran this week are conscious of just what they do want from a new government. They would undoubtedly be happy with a vote recount that gave them Mir Hossein Mousavi as president, and an end to the morality police who patrol in search of symptoms of modernity to stamp out. But if they got this, they would find that it was not enough. That there are far more difficult problems ahead.

Update: The tough response of the Iranian regime (in the form of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei) has resulted in violence. Not wanting to show weakness, Khamenei refused to back down from his support of Ahmadinejad. So now more than the election is being challenged; the legitimacy of the Iranian regime is challenged. It remains to be seen what will come of the reformists' protests and the Iranian government's fierce response. Too bad the reformists don't have a character such as Christian Bale played in Equilibrium, which we watched on the SciFi channel last night. Only in the movies is one person, with guns blazing, capable of toppling an entire regime.